08-16-2022, 04:46 PM
(08-16-2022, 04:23 PM)bplus Wrote: The odds after host opens 1 door is 50:50 if you choose to switch doors, certainly not 2/3! But the choice to switch doors is the one to pick because the odds of picking from 3 doors is 1/3 for grand prize at start, now improved to 1/2 after one door removed. I ran the sim years ago.
It's not. The odds are 1/3 you picked the right door and 2/3 you picked the wrong door -- and they stay those odds for the whole game.
Something is behind door 1, 2, or 3.
You choose 1. There's a 1 in 3 chance you guessed right. 2 in 3 you guessed wrong.
I tell you, it's not in door #3. Do you want to swap to Door #2?
What's your odds?? Just as they were before: 1 in 3 that you guessed right. 2 in 3 you guessed wrong. Switch to Door #2 and you have twice the chance to win as in Door #1.